Iraq's Potential Benefits from a Warming Saudi-Syrian Relationship: Economic Growth, Regional Consolidation, and Stability
Shafaq News/ The Middle East has long been a region marked by political instability, sectarian conflict, and economic turmoil. However, recent developments suggest that the region may be on the cusp of a new era of regional consolidation and shared economic interests. Specifically, the potential reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Syria could have significant implications for Iraq, which has maintained close ties with Syria throughout the nearly decade-long conflict and opened new channels with Saudi Arabia more recently.
The path toward a Saudi-Syrian détente has been long and rocky, marked by years of animosity and mistrust. Saudi Arabia has been a vocal opponent of the Assad regime, providing financial and military aid to opposition groups seeking to overthrow the government. However, recent signs suggest that Saudi Arabia may be willing to change its stance toward Syria. These signs were of great significance, as they marked a departure from Saudi Arabia's previous position of supporting the opposition and seeking to isolate the Assad regime.
The potential benefits of a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation for Iraq are considerable. First and foremost, it would provide Iraq with a more stable and secure regional environment, which could help to spur economic growth and development. Additionally, it could potentially open up new avenues for trade and investment, particularly in the energy sector. Before the Syrian crisis, trade between Iraq and Syria reached over $2.2 billion, and economists project that this figure could double with the restoration of stability in the region.
Furthermore, Iraq has played a critical role in facilitating negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize relations. During the peak of the ISIS conflict, Iraq formed an alliance with Russia, Iran, and Syria, creating a joint military operations center. This collaboration was critical in the fight against ISIS, as militants frequently crossed the Iraqi-Syrian border. The alliance also allowed Iraqi armed factions to join forces with Syrian troops to liberate cities under ISIS control.
A Saudi-Syrian reconciliation could also contribute to regional stability, which is essential for Iraq's long-term security and prosperity. Iraq has suffered from years of sectarian conflict and political instability, which have hampered its economic growth and development. However, the country has made significant strides in recent years towards achieving stability and security, particularly in the fight against ISIS.
One key factor in Iraq's path toward stability has been its close ties with regional powers like Iran and Russia. Despite facing criticism from some quarters, Iraq has sought to maintain cordial relations with its neighbors, particularly those with whom it shares a border. For example, Iraq has sought to balance its ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has put it in a unique position to facilitate negotiations between the two countries.
Iraq's leadership has also recognized the importance of economic growth and development in achieving stability and security. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has outlined a "path to progress" that seeks to improve Iraq's infrastructure, attract foreign investment, and diversify its economy. This path could expand into the Syrian territory, particularly in the energy sector, where Iraq and Syria have signed cooperation agreements focused on joint oil and gas exploration and expanding pipelines to export Iraqi oil through Syrian ports to Europe and the world.
The potential gains for Iraq from a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation extend beyond economic benefits. Iraq could find itself at the center of a new era of regional consolidation and shared interests, particularly in the fight against terrorism and extremism. The ongoing conflict in Syria has been a source of instability and insecurity for Iraq, as it has provided a safe haven for extremist groups like ISIS. However, a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation could help to reduce the threat of extremism in the region and create a more stable environment for Iraq
Additionally, Iraq's close relationship with Syria could also play a crucial role in the reconstruction efforts of the war-torn country. The Syrian conflict has devastated the country's infrastructure, leaving it in dire need of reconstruction. A potential Saudi-Syrian rapprochement could lead to the removal of the economic sanctions on Syria, which would help to revive the country's economy and provide it with the resources needed to rebuild.
The reconstruction of Syria's infrastructure would provide significant opportunities for Iraq's construction and engineering companies. Iraq has a large and skilled labor force in these fields, which could be utilized in Syria's rebuilding efforts. Additionally, Iraq's own infrastructure could also benefit from the reconstruction of Syria. The development of new roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects in Syria could improve the transportation links between the two countries, making it easier and more efficient to transport goods and people across the border.
Furthermore, a Saudi-Syrian reconciliation could also help to reduce the influence of external powers in the region. The Middle East has been the site of numerous proxy wars between regional and global powers, which have contributed to the instability and insecurity of the region. However, a regional consolidation of power could help to reduce the influence of external powers, creating a more stable and secure environment for the countries of the region.
In particular, the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria could lead to a reduction in the influence of Iran in the region. Iran has been a key backer of the Assad regime, providing it with financial and military support throughout the conflict. However, reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Syria could help to reduce Iran's influence in the region, which could contribute to a more stable and secure environment for Iraq.
Iraq has played a critical role in facilitating negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize relations. During the peak of the ISIS conflict, Iraq formed an alliance with Russia, Iran, and Syria, creating a joint military operations center. This collaboration was critical in the fight against ISIS, as militants frequently crossed the Iraqi-Syrian border. The alliance also allowed Iraqi armed factions to join forces with Syrian troops to liberate cities under ISIS control.
Iraq's potential gains from the progress towards a Saudi-Syrian détente would mean that Iraq's economy could play a vital role in regional reconciliation and understanding, hopefully contributing to the growth and development of the region's economy. Iraq could find itself at the center of a new era of regional consolidation and shared interests, particularly in the fight against terrorism and extremism.
The warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria could have significant implications for the wider Middle East region, particularly for Iraq. The potential gains for Iraq are considerable, ranging from economic benefits to increased stability and security. The restoration of trade and investment links between Iraq and Syria could help to spur economic growth and development, while a reduction in external influence could contribute to a more stable and secure regional environment. Additionally, Iraq's close ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran could play a crucial role in facilitating negotiations between the two countries and reducing tensions in the region. Overall, Iraq's role in facilitating regional reconciliation and understanding could prove to be vital in the years to come.
